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Nadal weeks as World No.1

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Post by Simple_Analyst Tue 14 Jun 2011, 12:45 pm

Nadal has surpassed the 100 mark barrier of weeks as World No.1 and as of this week, has passed Agassi on the all time list and is now 7th. Borg is 7 weeks ahead at 6th so Nadal has a chance of catching him some time later if he can sustain the Djokovic ranking onslaught and it only gets harder. The rest of the top 5 on the list are very far away but what do you make of Nadal's chances of getting closer to the top 5 all time weeks as No.1? Also which is more important? End of Year No.1 ranking or Weeks at No.1? Nadal has 2 YE No.1 Ranking already.
I for one can't see Nadal even catching McEnroe's 170 weeks as No.1 and 5th on the list. The competition is just too good. I'll say 150 weeks tops which will be roughly 3 years as world No.1 and very respectable period as well.

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Post by legendkillar Tue 14 Jun 2011, 12:50 pm

Very interesting question SA. Djokovic is closing in fast on the No.1 ranking. If for example Federer wins Wimbledon, makes the top 3 even more interesting. Nadal has so many points to defend coming up. If Nadal does lose the No.1 ranking, it will be very difficult to see him regain it for the length of consistency that others have held it for.

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Post by lydian Tue 14 Jun 2011, 1:13 pm

But who is likely to be No.1 right now? Surely either Nole or Nadal - cant see it being Murray, and cant see Fed sustaining it enough. Delpo....no, not yet and injury worries?

So, can Nole hold #1 all the time against Nadal...I'm not so sure...will be interesting. He has a chance of catching Mac, a chance...
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Post by Simple_Analyst Tue 14 Jun 2011, 1:14 pm

True and it will take almost a miracle for him to hold off Djokovic until year end and even recently after Wimbledon unless he wins and Djokovic makes the finals. Early next year could give him a great chance of regaining it though.

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Post by dummy_half Tue 14 Jun 2011, 1:15 pm

I was having a quick look at this earlier - Nadal has a tough test ahead to retain the #1 ranking after Wimbledon, as he will need to successfully defend the title AND for Djokovic to not make the final. Anything less for Rafa sees Djokovic going ahead (regardless of how well Novak performs).

The one that surprised me was that if Rafa loses the SF or earlier, he would drop to #3 if Federer wins the tournament.

I think it's unlikely that Rafa will regain the #1 spot this year once Djokovic goes ahead, as Novak has scope for improvement in his points even by having an average to good second half of the season, while it would be a minor surprise if Rafa can retain the USO against an in form Djokovic, an apparently resurgent Federer, a fit-again Del Potro and an Andy Murray who seems to be listening to his new coaching team.

I would not though be surprised to see Rafa re-take the #1 spot some time next year, although I can see a period where there may be relatively frequent changes at the top between a group of 3 or 4 players. As such, I think he might by the end of his career have another 30 to 50 weeks as the #1 ranked player. Hopefully Federer can also sneak a couple of weeks somewhere (noting that if he wins Wimbledon and Djokovic has a poor tournament, the gap would be under 1000 points), so that he finally takes the career record - it is looking vaguely possible if Roger does well in the next 2 slams.

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Post by Tom_____ Tue 14 Jun 2011, 4:01 pm

For this year, alot of the no.1 ranking depends on how Djokovic will react mentally now his streak is over. Even if Nadal loses his no.1 at wimbledon there would be opportunity to get the no. back this year if Djoko doesn't have good runs during the HC season

Remember also Nadal has a zero pointer that will be replaced with a 500 in early august - so he has a boost coming.

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Post by socal1976 Tue 14 Jun 2011, 4:04 pm

For me the biggest thing is the year end #1, no points from the previous year are factored in, its the guy who had the best year from start to finish. Novak should catch Nadal, but frankly i am little worried about wimbeldon, he didn't play any grass warmup matchup and an early upset would put him back a long way considering he has the finals from last year's USO to defend. He also has to protect his own semi points from last year's wimby.

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Post by socal1976 Tue 14 Jun 2011, 4:06 pm

Tom lets not forget that Nadal has more points to defend than Novak does in the year end indoors swing, he has the finals at london and I believe he won either Shanghai or Beijing last year while Novak didn't win a tournament after the USO finals last year.

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Post by luciusmann Tue 14 Jun 2011, 4:09 pm

For now and especially for Nadal, whoever wins Wimbledon is the key to deciding No.1.

Just like @ the French last year, Fed had to hold on to stay atop the rankings, Nadal needed too and did this year but he also now needs to repeat it again @ Wimbledon and as other posters have said that doesn't mean he will definitely will stay No.1 either.

Nadal may reach 150 weeks over the course of his career but if players like Djokovic are able to challenge Nadal on the ATP 1000 clay court tournaments (together worth more than the RG, with 3, 000 points) than Nadal will be at a reduced base. The reason Nadal's point base is as solid as it is right now is because he holds 3 of the 4 grand slams. Doing that will keep most players at No.1 but I'd be immensely impressed if Nadal retained all 3 of grand slam titles this year, but like other posters, I just don't think it will happen.

I'm sure Nadal can win one of them but I doubt he'll win both. If he does, then he joins an exclusive club of just one other player who has successfully retained all 3 of his grand slam titles the following year: Roger Federer. Even then, he only did it once.

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Post by Tom_____ Tue 14 Jun 2011, 4:21 pm

socal1976 wrote:Tom lets not forget that Nadal has more points to defend than Novak does in the year end indoors swing, he has the finals at london and I believe he won either Shanghai or Beijing last year while Novak didn't win a tournament after the USO finals last year.

Not quite sure on that social.

Masters wise after wimbledon Nadal has
1Sf 360
1QF 180
1R16 90
YE final 1000

Tokyo win 500
Bankok SF 90

total 2220


Djoko has
2 SF (2 x 360)
1 QF 180
1 R16 90

Win in Bejing 500
Final in Basel 300

YE SF 400

Total 2190

the difference between them is Wimbledon, the USO and the YE champs, but as i mentioned Nadal get the 500 point boost in August when his zero pointer drops off.

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Post by Tom_____ Tue 14 Jun 2011, 4:23 pm

Federer on the other hand has upwards of 4500 pts outside wimbledon and the USO and so must have a good end to the year to be a factor

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Post by socal1976 Tue 14 Jun 2011, 4:39 pm

Yeah Djoko usually plays well in the indoor swing and i think he can still make up ground but nice breakdown there isn't much of a difference between the two, so it was tokyo nadal won last year.

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Post by luciusmann Tue 14 Jun 2011, 4:43 pm

Agreed Tom, Federer had a very good stretch post Wimbledon, the only lapse was not making the US Open final, even then he had match points. I don't rate Nadal's chances of picking up much points wise post Wimbledon, I've said it before, his record is bad.

Federer's is reasonable good (especially during the hard court stretch into the US Open) in the last few years and Djokovic's hard court record is pretty good too and given his recent form, he could do even better. Although I'd say that Djokovic's best chance of becoming No.1 is Nadal losing one of his grand slam titles.

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Post by lydian Tue 14 Jun 2011, 4:44 pm

All to play for.....but I dont think Nadal is motivated by being number 1 in general.

The race to year end #1 is interesting though...The unknown factor for both guys as the tour turns hardcourt after Wimby is who gets to face Delpo in the draw each time because he is one dangerous 'floater'....luck may yet play a part in who ends as #1.
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Post by luciusmann Tue 14 Jun 2011, 5:02 pm

I agree, I think Nadal would much rather hold onto Wimbledon & the US Open than stay No.1.

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Post by Tom_____ Tue 14 Jun 2011, 7:49 pm

To be honest i could easily see Nadal getting to a masters final or winning the Montreal masters for example, as he does have a good record at these. Cincinnati appears to be the only one where he really struggles to get anywhere near winning.

I would expect improvement on last year anyway - didn't he pull out of Paris all together last year (Finalist 2007).

For NAdal its all about how he does at the Slams and how far he gets if he doesn't win.

Federer has to do well from now to the end of the year.

Murray could win a haul of points at the USO

Djoko has to keep ticking over and basically avoid blow-out - could that happen though?

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Post by socal1976 Wed 15 Jun 2011, 4:42 am

Tom, you make valid points, but to be honest I can't see Nadal having as good a run at the USO this year as he did last year. He hasn't looked like the same player he was in 2010 and we know that the USO is the most difficult slam for Nadal to win. Djoko, needs to not lose early this season in any grandslam, and frankly my big fear is that he gets a big server in the first couple of rounds of wimby, while he has had no match practice and the guy bombs 40 aces and knocks him out because he just serves out of his mind that day. From here on out Novak has more points to defend, but Nadal has to basically run the table for two more grandslam tourneys to keep him from the #1. Remember Novak has already this season tied the record for most Master's won in a year, those 4 master's are the equivalent of 2 grandslams in points.

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Post by ebar86 Wed 15 Jun 2011, 6:29 pm

post-wimby 2010 points do not differ much for both

but nadal not playing atp1000 paris last year.

but i dont think post-wimby result will yield so much different from last year,,
may be,,this wimbledon will give a significant impact on the year-end #1

nadal needs to defend his win
djoko needs to defend his last year's SF,,(with no grass warmup)


big task for both but
unless there'll be upset on nadal,,i can see nadal still running/jumping in dressing room on the last day of tournament

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