Ulster 2013/2014

One guy I think deserves high praise from these two Treviso games is Sean Doyle.
As you know I reported some doubt about his future and that he needed to put his hand - he has done so big time.

Few more games like that and he will be with us next year for sure.

geoff998rugby wrote:One thing to bear in mind is that if we and Leicester get a identical result in Round 5 a loss by 1 to 5 points would still see us top. A loss by 6 points would still see us top provided Leicester do not score 3 tries more than us or score 4 tries total - our points difference is so superior.

Small margins just might make the difference.
One reason why 5 points at home to Montpelier may well be crucial

5 points is vital against Montpellier because the Tigers will get 5 against Treviso I believe. If we get maximum points against Montpellier a point at Welford should be enough.

I still think we will probably need to win at Welford to win the group but 5-6 points from our next 2 games is vital to ensure we qualify regardless.

Rodders is we get 5 points against Treviso then a loss of 1 to 5 points will see us top the group, as per Mrs P. info, provided they do not score more tries than us in the head to head.

In terms of qualifying a simple win against Montpelier will see us through.
We only need 4 points. There are no other groups where the 2nd placed team can get 22 points.

I'd agree there, as long as we qualify I won't be at all upset. If we have a home QF then it's a bonus but exit from the group is all I care about at the moment.
Montpellier within a whisker of doing us a big favour yesterday was exciting stuff and proof of how difficult they are to deal with in France no matter who they put on the field. We could of been sitting pretty but at least it sets up a couple of huge games where complacency won't come into the equation. Complacency makes banana skins.

OK on the second paragraph Geoff.

I think Leicester will score tries against us though. I think we need to be going into that game with 23 points in the bag so the Tigers know that a win might not be enough - force them to chase points.

Pete330v2 wrote:I'd agree there, as long as we qualify I won't be at all upset.

I won't be upset either but I think this tournament is extremely hard to win on the road. If we want to have a real shot we need to win the group I think as having a home QF makes a huge difference. We don't want to be away in France or England for the QF.

We do need 23 points to be able to lose and still win (if you see my point).

If that is the case though a 1 to 5 point loss will be enough provided they do not score more tries than us. If we do not match them for tries we will have to win or draw regardless

One thing to remember is if we lose I am pretty certain we will be playing away to............................................. Leicester !

They will be 2nd only to the winners of Toulouse/Sarcens and as such 2nd seed - we will be 7th seed

I think if we get 6 - 9 points from our next 2 games we'll win the tournament but if we get 5 or less we won't.

There I said it.

What if we get 6 points but don't win the group

geoff998rugby wrote:What if we get 6 points but don't win the group

I think 6 points will win the group - 8 needs to be the target though. Everyone looks beatable this year....except us, that is, if we win all our games .....   

Barring any injuries over the next month are we looking at everyone back fit for rounds 5 and 6?

Rory and tommy would be touch and go I think.

Agreed re Rory and Tommy - I would not be sure

Henry, Hendo, Stevenson, Williams will be quite a decent set of returnees though

+ Paddy Wallace being fit again

The big difference this season is Jackson anyway. He is controlling games with his kicking. I think if we get Henry and Henderson back and fit for the Montpellier and Leicester games we can squeeze the life out of both. Our defensive line is holding nicely

I think Jackson has been superb, but also Luke Marshall - the 2 combine so well together and also with Gilroy - the 3 have an almost telepathic understanding.

There is also more depth - in theory Diack, Wilson and Doyle - could be regarded as a 2nd string backrow in the absence of Ferris, Henry, Henderson and Williams but there is real strength in depth there now which is giving us much more consistency.

Picking our strongest 1st XV is the challenge with so much competition for places there.

Speaking of the big lad, any news on Ferris Geoff?
He's running again isn't he?

Early Feb has been mentioned as the targeted return - we have 3 home games in February.

Talk of him running on without any anti gravity gismo this past week.
Not heard anything - good or bad.

Geoff,

What's the situation with his contract? The 6 months would have been up around now-ish wouldn't it? Did they extend it or is he out of contract unless and until he can prove his fitness?

geoff998rugby wrote:One guy I think deserves high praise from these two Treviso games is Sean Doyle.
As you know I reported some doubt about his future and that he needed to put his hand - he has done so big time.
Few more games like that and he will be with us next year for sure.

Always did think he had it in him tbh. He's been great. Certainly a better option than McComish.

Here, remember when we wear saying the same about Diack’s attitude. You have to give serious praise to the coaching staff on things like this. So much of it is to do with getting the attitude right in players. I think it looks like one of Anscombes strongest skills.

It's still good to hear he's making progress. If it wasn't for him being he player he is I don't think there would be so much effort and never-say-die attitude put into adding time to his career. Fingers crossed it all comes good for the big fella.

Good to see that 'Lurkin Lorcan' was picked out as having a good game for the u19s.

http://www.irishrugby.ie/rugby/30360.php

Ferris contract is up at the end of December - I would assume there will be a 2 month extension to cover the time when he expects to return.

Diack's turn round is simple.
He and McLaughlin did not get on.
In fact if McLaughlin had stayed as head coach I think he would have left.
Under Anscombe we are seeing what he is capable of.

As least two other players I have spoken to have said how pleased they were at the changes Anscombe brought in.

McLaughlin nice guy but not the best man manager by all accounts.
Muller had to take that role when he came here

McLaughlin is a good guy, and I hope he pops up again in some official capacity. He would add value to the backroom staff of a national team coaching panel (which he has done before), he would be in my mind the outstanding candidate to be the next coach of Ireland U20s, he could coach the Wolfhounds and if Pat Lam doesn't get Connacht moving forward they could do a lot worse than to give McLaughs a call.

I do feel Anscombe has really brought us on, I hope he gets a new contract.

Geoff, any inside word on signings as of yet or will we have to wait a while longer before we get so much as a rumour?

I don't think the smoke and mirrors will clear re names till January.

As I have said early though we have made a formal request to sign 4 players LH, TH, Lock, Back row

McLaughlin is still with us working with the kids and by all accounts doing a brilliant job.
It suits him brings his technical know how to the fore but doesn't require tricky man management.
Basically plays to his strengths.

The expectation of us having a conveyor belt of good (or better) players coming through the academy is very high for the coming years

Sounds good to me   

Can't wait to hear some names bandied around in January.

Stevenson, Henry and Henderson are all very close.
However I think we have learnt our lesson and would not be at all surprised if we dont see any of them till Munster. For the sake of Zebre and Leinster not worth it - we need to think long term.
Williams I think is in the same boat but not certain on that one.

Bowe will not make the HC games

rodders wrote:

geoff998rugby wrote:What if we get 6 points but don't win the group

I think 6 points will win the group - 8 needs to be the target though. Everyone looks beatable this year....except us, that is, if we win all our games .....    

6 points...would mean 1 win & 2 bonus points. Those bonus points wont be easy though i.e. will Montpellier turn up at Ravenhill?
Assuming that Leicester get 9 from their last 2 (5 @ Treviso & 4 home to us, with Ulster taking the losing bonus point)....thats us both on 24 and it then comes down to a head to head record.  Match points will be the same (5pts) so it then comes to tries, then points difference. So we would have to outscore Leicester on tries @ Welford or level with them and loose by less that 6.

6 points would probably a minimum to top the group. With Leciester piping Montpellier at the death a win @ Leciester is the only way to be sure...And to be fair Ulster have the more difficult run in. Saying that its in their own hands and certainly they look good enough right now to do it. That would probably also be as No1 seed!

geoff999rugby wrote:I don't think the smoke and mirrors will clear re names till January.

As I have said early though we have made a formal request to sign 4 players LH, TH, Lock, Back row

McLaughlin is still with us working with the kids and by all accounts doing a brilliant job.
It suits him brings his technical know how to the fore but doesn't require tricky man management.
Basically plays to his strengths.

The expectation of us having a conveyor belt of good (or better) players coming through the academy is very high for the coming years

Just to clarify Geoff - is the 'formal request' something you seek and THEN go look for players, or do you have players lined up and then make your 'formal request'.

Basically I'm asking, have we got signings lined up? Or still scouting?

I think David Humphreys has a number of people in mind and would have had informal talks to see if they are interested.
However unless he is certain of a particular position - Lock seems most likely - detailed talks would not take place until he gets the green light.

Also he would be realistic enough to know that he will not get 4 NIQ and that some will have to be 'Project' type players and some will have to be IQ.
So bottom line would be more than one name in the frame for each position but details to be discussed.

Things remain fluid I am sure - remember we had Andress and Cory Jane lined up but because Jane dithered we ended up with Afoa and Payne

Lets hope for more dithering then!

Looks like Paddy Wallace, Declan Fitzpatrick and Ricky Andrew are being lined up for starts against Zebre.

Also Roger Wilson may not start.

geoff998rugby wrote:Looks like Paddy Wallace, Declan Fitzpatrick and Ricky Andrew are being lined up for starts against Zebre.

Also Roger Wilson may not start.

I'd also be happy to see Allen in at 13. Cave has played a lot of rugby.

Payne outside Paddy maybe? Gilroy and Allen could be doing with a run out on the wings.

Is Nelson injured?

My gut feeling is Payne will not be playing.
Still not convinced his groin is 100%

I expect the backs to be Marshall, Jackson, Trimble, Wallace, Cave, Gilroy, Andrew.
Bench: A 9 (dont know who), McKinney, Allen

9 is guess work the rest I am pretty certain of.

Nelson will get a run out during the 6N I reckon but on the wing not 15

Looks good to me. More concerned about the back-row wothout Wilson. Doyle and Diack are ok at 7 and 8, maybe if Wilson doesn't make it its time to try Conor Joyce out in a real game instead of McComish?

Notch wrote:Looks good to me. More concerned about the back-row wothout Wilson. Doyle and Diack are ok at 7 and 8, maybe if Wilson doesn't make it its time to try Conor Joyce out in a real game instead of McComish?

Agreed - Isn’t it great to be in a position where we have great expectation of young players. Allen, Marshall, Gilroy, Henderson and more recently Ricky Andrew have all stood up and surprised us while being played out of necessity. I’d love to see Conor Joyce take an opportunity to continue the trend.

I wasn't surprised about Marshall, Gilroy or Henderson. I thought at least two of those players would go on to be first choice for Ireland along with Paddy Jackson after I saw them play in the opening game of the new Lansdowne Road. Wouldn't have seen Joyce as being quite in the same class, but we'll see.

I agree I don't see Joyce in the Henderson class but I could see him develop into a player up close to Henry and that wouldn't be bad.

Remember Chris was 23 before he broke through and 26 before he started to player 7 regularly. Some players take time to develop - I think Joyce might be in the same mold.

You think Joyce is a 7 then?

I think he could be.

Watching him I can see many similarities with Henry at the same age.
He is only 20 and like Henry, at the same age, is considered a 6/8.
Like Henry he is not big enough for 6/8.
Like Henry he has a brain on him.

Rory Best has just signed a 2 year deal.

Great for Ulster and Ireland. What a class act and great player.

rodders wrote:Rory Best has just signed a 2 year deal.

Great for Ulster and Ireland. What a class act and great player.

Pity he didn't get a fair crack at being great for the Lions too

Thought he would but great to hear.

That it is it official there no more big names to leave Ulster.

Afoa, Court, Muller (95% certain) is it

geoff998rugby wrote:I think he could be.

Watching him I can see many similarities with Henry at the same age.
He is only 20 and like Henry, at the same age, is considered a 6/8.
Like Henry he is not big enough for 6/8.
Like Henry he has a brain on him.

At just 20, surely he has lots of time to bulk up?

But he wont get any taller and they are the same height 1.91cm
Another thing they have in common

geoff998rugby wrote:Thought he would but great to hear.

That it is it official there no more big names to leave Ulster.

Afoa, Court, Muller (95% certain) is it

No chance Muller doing another season?

Loved this from Rory

The support that I received when I missed out on the initial Lions squad was a massive factor in me making the decision to stay. That made me feel very special and underlined to me that Ulster is more than a team, it is a community and a rugby family

I know at the time he was genuinely moved by the expressions of support he got when he, initially, missed out on the Lions. It meant a lot to him