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How much is this year's FO title worth?

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Post by JuliusHMarx Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:23 pm

I can't help myself.

There is a much-touted idea that if you play a lesser player* in a GS final, then that GS is somehow not worth a 'proper' or 'full' slam.
Now that Rafa is playing someone who has never been in a GS final before, never been a top 3 player and only won 1 Masters title, how much is this year's FO title worth? 0.87 of a slam? 0.76 of a slam?

Me, I say, it's like all the others - it's worth exactly 1 slam.

* such as Hewitt, Safin or Roddick

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Post by User 774433 Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:26 pm

Unless Ferrer turns up really improved, I think it'll be one of the easier slam finals Nadal will have to play in his career.
Of course, he's had to play a very very hard semi-final- I've always said that it's in the last few matches your biggest test normally comes.

I don't know about putting decimal numbers on it- that sounds a bit silly tbh.


Last edited by Red on Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:28 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by User 774433 Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:27 pm

I'm surprised you wrote this article though Julius.

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Post by JuliusHMarx Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:30 pm

I'm just full of surprises Red

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Post by Henman Bill Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:32 pm

Not sure if this is a windup but it's not Rafa's fault the draw put Djokovic in his half and he beat him in the semi rather than the final.

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Post by kingraf Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:33 pm

Well, he beat the world number one to get there, thats worth 1.33 Slams, beat Wawrinka, which has a 1.12 value for a Slam QF. Nishikori was cannon fodder, so about 0.8, Fognini comes with a curse, so winning a slam after you draw him is worth 1.5 slams, Klizan was a Jr RG champ, so as a 2nd round opponent he is worth... 0.9 Slams. Brands had never made it past R1, so he was 0.75
adding all these up 1.33 + 1.12 + 0.8 + 1.5 + 0.9 + 0.75 + 0.84 for Ferrer, Nadal's RG would equal 1.034/match. Thus has a value of 1.034 Slams. The average is significantly boosted by Fognini though..
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Post by JuliusHMarx Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:35 pm

HB, that's exactly my point. This slam is worth as much as any other, IMO. But too often, people will say, oh, Player A only played Player G in the final - it was an easy slam, not worth as much.
I'm wondering if those same people will say that about this GS?

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Post by JuliusHMarx Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:36 pm

kingraf wrote:Well, he beat the world number one to get there, thats worth 1.33 Slams, beat Wawrinka, which has a 1.12 value for a Slam QF. Nishikori was cannon fodder, so about 0.8, Fognini comes with a curse, so winning a slam after you draw him is worth 1.5 slams, Klizan was a Jr RG champ, so as a 2nd round opponent he is worth... 0.9 Slams. Brands had never made it past R1, so he was 0.75
adding all these up 1.33 + 1.12 + 0.8 + 1.5 + 0.9 + 0.75 + 0.84 for Ferrer, Nadal's RG would equal 1.034/match. Thus has a value of 1.034 Slams. The average is significantly boosted by Fognini though..

I'm not sure it goes to 3 decimal place Headscratch
Shall we round it up to 1.04?

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Post by User 774433 Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:39 pm

Henman Bill wrote:Not sure if this is a windup but it's not Rafa's fault the draw put Djokovic in his half and he beat him in the semi rather than the final.
Yeah that's what I'm thinking.

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Post by bogbrush Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:39 pm

No, actual opponent plays no part; every fan knows that you can only beat the player in front of you. i dislike any bias being used to rate Slams, the true value is very straightforward.

V = (Sv).(e^2).a/b

Where V = Overall net value
Sv = Slam venue weighting
e = era strength index
b = no of hands used on backhand stroke
a = player age/27
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Post by User 774433 Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:40 pm

bogbrush wrote:No, actual opponent plays no part; every fan knows that you can only beat the player in front of you. i dislike any bias being used to rate Slams, the true value is very straightforward.

V = (Sv).(e^2).a/b

Where V = Overall net value
Sv = Slam venue weighting
e = era strength index
b = no of hands used on backhand stroke
a = player age/27
Laugh

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Post by kingraf Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:41 pm

Julius - I'd be suprised if they say it, to be honest, Nadal was just stretched to five by The world #1, the player who supposedly, on his da "can just pull away from him". Thats a big effort. Okay so he gets an easy final, but he had a mountain to climb to get there.

And yes, lets round it off to 1.03
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Post by invisiblecoolers Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:44 pm

Red wrote:I'm surprised you wrote this article though Julius.

Well Red you know the motions and emotions of this forum, in order to elevete a player their fans do all maths from countability to bottle sortings to player form Very Happy .

I remember how many people use to mock Gaudio's FO as pure fluke, nothing at this level comes fluke, Gaudio beat a clay coat great in Coria, and he won a slam in Fed's era.

In reality all slams are of equal worth, if a slam is so easy to achieve I would have won one by now, I am decent college level player with an inter college trophy behind my name. thumbsup

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Post by User 774433 Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:46 pm

invisiblecoolers wrote:

In reality all slams are of equal worth, if a slam is so easy to achieve I would have won one by now, I am decent college level player with an inter college trophy behind my name. thumbsup
I'm not sure the first clause of your sentence is relevant to the rest, but oh well.

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Post by _homogenised_ Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:49 pm

The best slam is Wimbledon, and we all know it. The faster the surface the more ability you need.

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Post by User 774433 Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:50 pm

_homogenised_ wrote:The best slam is Wimbledon, and we all know it. The faster the surface the more ability you need.
Your two sentences don't really seem to have a connection.

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Post by JuliusHMarx Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:54 pm

_homogenised_ wrote:The best slam is Wimbledon, and we all know it. The faster the surface the more ability you need.

There you go, I knew someone would bite Smile

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Post by The Special Juan Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:57 pm

Don't you have to factor in a multiple of the seeds who are missing through injury plus the number of major titles they have won?
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Post by JuliusHMarx Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:00 pm

kingraf wrote:Julius - I'd be suprised if they say it, to be honest, Nadal was just stretched to five by The world #1, the player who supposedly, on his da "can just pull away from him". Thats a big effort. Okay so he gets an easy final, but he had a mountain to climb to get there.

And yes, lets round it off to 1.03

It's been said plenty of times in the past.

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Post by JuliusHMarx Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:00 pm

The Special Juan wrote:Don't you have to factor in a multiple of the seeds who are missing through injury plus the number of major titles they have won?

Depends - do you like Rafa or not? Smile

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Post by invisiblecoolers Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:02 pm

Red wrote:
invisiblecoolers wrote:

In reality all slams are of equal worth, if a slam is so easy to achieve I would have won one by now, I am decent college level player with an inter college trophy behind my name. thumbsup
I'm not sure the first clause of your sentence is relevant to the rest, but oh well.

hmmm picard

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Post by The Special Juan Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:03 pm

JuliusHMarx wrote:
The Special Juan wrote:Don't you have to factor in a multiple of the seeds who are missing through injury plus the number of major titles they have won?

Depends - do you like Rafa or not? Smile

I neither like nor dislike him Wink
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Post by bogbrush Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:03 pm

The Special Juan wrote:Don't you have to factor in a multiple of the seeds who are missing through injury plus the number of major titles they have won?
Yes, this is incorporated through the variable "e", which assesses era strength. Like the rest of my function this is objectively measured using the factors you mention.

I apologise for using citing the abbreviated version.
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Post by User 774433 Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:03 pm

invisiblecoolers wrote:
Red wrote:
invisiblecoolers wrote:

In reality all slams are of equal worth, if a slam is so easy to achieve I would have won one by now, I am decent college level player with an inter college trophy behind my name. thumbsup
I'm not sure the first clause of your sentence is relevant to the rest, but oh well.

hmmm picard
Wait, what was the connection then? I didn't see any, apologies for that- no reason to bring out the picard IC Smile

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Post by Henman Bill Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:07 pm

To those of you who say they are all worth the same, what if Rafa, Murray, Djokovic and Federer and Ferrer had all been injured, and berdych, Tsonga, Del Potro had all suffered surprise early defeats and no top 10 player had been left in the QF. Do you honestly think it would be worth as much as say Del Potro's defeat of Nadal and Federer back to back in 2009 in the US Open?

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Post by The Special Juan Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:08 pm

bogbrush wrote:
The Special Juan wrote:Don't you have to factor in a multiple of the seeds who are missing through injury plus the number of major titles they have won?
Yes, this is incorporated through the variable "e", which assesses era strength. Like the rest of my function this is objectively measured using the factors you mention.

I apologise for using citing the abbreviated version.

That explains, it. Thanks!!
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Post by JuliusHMarx Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:08 pm

_homogenised_ wrote:The best slam is Wimbledon, and we all know it. The faster the surface the more ability you need.

So to win it twice you must have some pretty amazing ability.

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Post by JuliusHMarx Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:10 pm

Henman Bill wrote:To those of you who say they are all worth the same, what if Rafa, Murray, Djokovic and Federer and Ferrer had all been injured, and berdych, Tsonga, Del Potro had all suffered surprise early defeats and no top 10 player had been left in the QF. Do you honestly think it would be worth as much as say Del Potro's defeat of Nadal and Federer back to back in 2009 in the US Open?

The only slam I can think of in the Open era that had less value was the Wimbledon boycott - 1973 I think.

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Post by The Special Juan Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:17 pm

In 100 years time, do you really think people will debate over who beat who to win their majors? Do we sit and bicker about Fred Perry v Gottfried von Cram? No, they all mean the same. A major is a major and that's that. Del Potro's might feel more special for his fans considering who he had to beat but at the end of the day it's the same as, say, (randomly picks a major and a year) the French Open 1983.
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Post by User 774433 Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:19 pm

JuliusHMarx wrote:
Henman Bill wrote:To those of you who say they are all worth the same, what if Rafa, Murray, Djokovic and Federer and Ferrer had all been injured, and berdych, Tsonga, Del Potro had all suffered surprise early defeats and no top 10 player had been left in the QF. Do you honestly think it would be worth as much as say Del Potro's defeat of Nadal and Federer back to back in 2009 in the US Open?

The only slam I can think of in the Open era that had less value was the Wimbledon boycott - 1973 I think.
Why do you think that had less value?

Because it's not as difficult to win, and hence not as impressive, without the missing competition due to boycott.
But then again, won't natural (but not so dramatic) fluctuations in this regard take place anyway??

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Post by socal1976 Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:19 pm

I think judging by how Nadal was barely able to beat a guy who can't keep from running into the net and then faces the Ferret in the final, it can't be too valuable of a slam. At best I would rate it as .53 of a regular slam.

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Post by kingraf Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:23 pm

We've had this discussion before - heres a hint - no one wins, we dont even agree to disagree. No one one wins. eventually, everyone just gets bored .
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Post by User 774433 Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:24 pm

socal1976 wrote:I think judging by how Nadal was barely able to beat a guy who can't keep from running into the net
lol Smile

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Post by JuliusHMarx Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:24 pm

socal1976 wrote:I think judging by how Nadal was barely able to beat a guy who can't keep from running into the net and then faces the Ferret in the final, it can't be too valuable of a slam. At best I would rate it as .53 of a regular slam.

Harsh, even by your standards socal. I mean, surely Fed's win vs Baggy was only a 0.59?

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Post by invisiblecoolers Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:24 pm

Red wrote:
invisiblecoolers wrote:
Red wrote:
invisiblecoolers wrote:

In reality all slams are of equal worth, if a slam is so easy to achieve I would have won one by now, I am decent college level player with an inter college trophy behind my name. thumbsup
I'm not sure the first clause of your sentence is relevant to the rest, but oh well.

hmmm picard
Wait, what was the connection then? I didn't see any, apologies for that- no reason to bring out the picard IC Smile

The reason is simple, we are doing a Tennis discussion and you deviated as usual to something else, and the worst part you weren't even right thumbsup

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Post by invisiblecoolers Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:25 pm

Henman Bill wrote:To those of you who say they are all worth the same, what if Rafa, Murray, Djokovic and Federer and Ferrer had all been injured, and berdych, Tsonga, Del Potro had all suffered surprise early defeats and no top 10 player had been left in the QF. Do you honestly think it would be worth as much as say Del Potro's defeat of Nadal and Federer back to back in 2009 in the US Open?

yup. thumbsup

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Post by JuliusHMarx Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:25 pm

kingraf wrote:We've had this discussion before - heres a hint - no one wins, we dont even agree to disagree. No one one wins. eventually, everyone just gets bored .

Well, yeah, if people take it seriously!
But there's got to more a few more laughs to be milked out of it yet.

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Post by summerblues Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:25 pm

JHM, this is a bit WUMy article, no? As a mod, you should be happy that those era discussions subsided. Do not worry, they will come up again - as they always do. No need to instigate. Wink

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Post by The Special Juan Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:26 pm

Ugh I had to randomly pick Yannick Noah's didn't I?
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Post by User 774433 Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:26 pm

invisiblecoolers wrote:
Red wrote:
invisiblecoolers wrote:
Red wrote:
invisiblecoolers wrote:

In reality all slams are of equal worth, if a slam is so easy to achieve I would have won one by now, I am decent college level player with an inter college trophy behind my name. thumbsup
I'm not sure the first clause of your sentence is relevant to the rest, but oh well.

hmmm picard
Wait, what was the connection then? I didn't see any, apologies for that- no reason to bring out the picard IC Smile

The reason is simple, we are doing a Tennis discussion and you deviated as usual to something else, and the worst part you weren't even right thumbsup
Sorry IC, dunno why you seem so angry at me. Smile
Honestly, I genuinely didn't see the connection between the first clause of your sentence and the rest of the sentence.
I must be missing it, so can you just fill me in anyway. Smile

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Post by invisiblecoolers Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:27 pm

socal1976 wrote:I think judging by how Nadal was barely able to beat a guy who can't keep from running into the net and then faces the Ferret in the final, it can't be too valuable of a slam. At best I would rate it as .53 of a regular slam.

You are too generous as usual. thumbsup

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Post by JuliusHMarx Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:27 pm

summerblues wrote:JHM, this is a bit WUMy article, no? As a mod, you should be happy that those era discussions subsided. Do not worry, they will come up again - as they always do. No need to instigate. Wink

It's not an era discussion - it's a 'who you play in the final' discussion. I think there's enough posters enjoying themselves on this thread to merit it.

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Post by summerblues Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:30 pm

JuliusHMarx wrote:It's not an era discussion - it's a 'who you play in the final' discussion. I think there's enough posters enjoying themselves on this thread to merit it.
As long as you can make sure this does not get out of hand. This could end in tears, you know. Wink


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Post by Henman Bill Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:31 pm

Federer played so poorly in 2008 at the French Open I would only rate that as a 0.224 for Rafa. I'm not sure that one even counts. If you look at the official history book there is a blank space there.


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Post by kingraf Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:32 pm

JuliusHMarx wrote:
kingraf wrote:We've had this discussion before - heres a hint - no one wins, we dont even agree to disagree. No one one wins. eventually, everyone just gets bored .

Well, yeah, if people take it seriously!
But there's got to more a few more laughs to be milked out of it yet.


Eventually the laughs subside to chaos. Im not even going to comment. The thread itself has enough box-office appeal How much is this year's FO title worth? 1347041234
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Post by JuliusHMarx Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:32 pm

Henman Bill wrote:Federer played so poorly in 2008 at the French Open I would only rate that as a 0.224 for Rafa. I'm not sure that one even counts. If you look at the official history book there is a blank space there.


Good God, not even an asterisk?

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Post by invisiblecoolers Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:33 pm

Red wrote:
invisiblecoolers wrote:
Red wrote:
invisiblecoolers wrote:
Red wrote:
invisiblecoolers wrote:

In reality all slams are of equal worth, if a slam is so easy to achieve I would have won one by now, I am decent college level player with an inter college trophy behind my name. thumbsup
I'm not sure the first clause of your sentence is relevant to the rest, but oh well.

hmmm picard
Wait, what was the connection then? I didn't see any, apologies for that- no reason to bring out the picard IC Smile

The reason is simple, we are doing a Tennis discussion and you deviated as usual to something else, and the worst part you weren't even right thumbsup
Sorry IC, dunno why you seem so angry at me. Smile
Honestly, I genuinely didn't see the connection between the first clause of your sentence and the rest of the sentence.
I must be missing it, so can you just fill me in anyway. Smile

I am not angry at you at all, indeed happy to see you back . Hug

My example is just a corelation how difficult it is to get into challangers let alone the main ATP tour, we don't the see the broader circle, talent wise there could be many players who could be as good as Federer is but they don't shine coz of so many reason one of them being application and other one being execution, but the most over looked point is opportunity and maximizing the opportunity. So if somebody could maximize the given oppurtunity and go on to win a slam they simply deserve the slam, there is no 2 way about it.

No slam is easy to win is the conclusion, since you wanted in detail I have casted it in detail. thumbsup

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Post by JuliusHMarx Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:33 pm

summerblues wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:It's not an era discussion - it's a 'who you play in the final' discussion. I think there's enough posters enjoying themselves on this thread to merit it.
As long as you can make sure this does not get out of hand. This could end in tears, you know. Wink


Then consider it a test of the new-found maturity of the forum. Can we see this one through?

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Post by User 774433 Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:34 pm

JuliusHMarx wrote:
summerblues wrote:JHM, this is a bit WUMy article, no? As a mod, you should be happy that those era discussions subsided. Do not worry, they will come up again - as they always do. No need to instigate. Wink

It's not an era discussion - it's a 'who you play in the final' discussion. I think there's enough posters enjoying themselves on this thread to merit it.
It's a bit of a WUM article aimed at demonising a perfectly valid and legitimate argument that having more slams does not necessarily mean you are the better player.. due to different circumstances.
For example I can think that Martina's record in Grand Slams is more impressive for me than Graf's despite Graf having more slams (due to differing circumstances), If it is set in stone that a slam has a arbitrary value of one there is no room for this belief... Graf then must be better than Martina.
Along with that, you also have to be aware that there may be natural fluctuations and variations in terms of difficulty... as there always will be. Sometimes we may have many great players at their prime, other times it is a bit of a transition period.

Ultimately, and though I may be wrong, I see this is a snide attempt at twisting and eventually demonising a relatively normal viewpoint.

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Post by User 774433 Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:35 pm

JuliusHMarx wrote:
summerblues wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:It's not an era discussion - it's a 'who you play in the final' discussion. I think there's enough posters enjoying themselves on this thread to merit it.
As long as you can make sure this does not get out of hand. This could end in tears, you know. Wink


Then consider it a test of the new-found maturity of the forum. Can we see this one through?
We can see this through Cool

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