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What a game awaits us next weekend

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bluestonevedder
nganboy
disneychilly
FerN
Biltong
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anotherworldofpain
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Post by kiakahaaotearoa Sun 30 Sep 2012, 2:08 am

Well I was harsh on the ABs last week but I stand by many of the comments I made. The ABs looked shaky for the first 15 minutes and Argentina looked sharp. They took a well deserved try but then NZ came back pretty much straight away.

Suddenly the handling was good and the ball was protected well. NZ shifted the Argentinians round the field and the gaps opened. It was a good all-round performance and senior players like Carter, Nonu, McCaw, Read were excellent and the young players like Savea, Smith and Romano and Retallick also contributed.

So now NZ has the rugby championship. But a humdinger of a match looks to be on the cards because SA looked ominous today and so much so that there was talk of them still being able to win the championship. That's how good they looked with Goosen in for Steyn. Their senior players like Habana also had great games and their confidence is high. NZ needed this match I feel where their attack finally clicked to go into the match with the right frame of mind. Argentina will look at the scoreboard tonight and feel they played better than the Wallabies but suffered a bigger loss.

It just goes to show if the AB attack does click, then they can put away good sides. SA will be pleased to see though when you keep possession there are gaps in the AB line. Argentina made a few line breaks but there wasn't enough variety in their attack to ask further questions of the AB defence. Hernandez just didn't take the ball in hand to the line but if SA can retain possession, they will be better adept at finding those gaps.

Conditions will be good in Soweto and though it is at high altitude, the ABs will relish a hard ground and good weather to get their backs into the game. What they'll need to do though is lay the platform in the forwards. McCaw was outstanding tonight and he will hopefully benefit from only playing 60 minutes of this match.

Sadly for SA supporters the championship is not on the line but these two teams don't need further motivation to win. It's the traditional foe and finally Meyer is picking a side that can get the best out of this Bok side. Hopefully next weekend we see a match where both sides are at their peak and we see a good game that befits two teams of this stature. We haven't really had much vintage rugby in this year's 4N where defence has dominated. If we can end the championship on a high with what looms to be a great matchup then so much the better. I for one can't wait because I love the games where a win seems a very difficult prospect before and during the match. SA are at home at altitude and the ABs don't win too many games there. So they are in the driving seat but SA will also be wary that NZ finally clicked on attack tonight and looked useful. Argentina and Australia will be an intriguing match as well but there seems a lot of expectation to this match. I hope it'll be a cracker and whoever wins had to work really hard for it. kia kaha

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Post by Taylorman Sun 30 Sep 2012, 3:26 am

At least todays matches were full of running with plenty of tries all round.

I particularly enjoyed seeing the Boks move the ball around, combining well with the pack. Very refreshing and reminiscent of the earlier days when guys like gerber were storming ahead in the backs- ball in hand, something we havnt seen a lot of lately.

The record streak is the only tangible goal for the ABs now other than the win at altitude vs SA and you have to think SA are on something of a rennaisance with their more complete game. The future particularly looks bright if they continue to get selections right.

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Post by blackcanelion Sun 30 Sep 2012, 4:19 am

It's been a great season in terms of traiospottkng. Somethings always been on the line. 3 match tours to SH, by England, Wales, Ireland and France. Teams looking for 1st victories downunder (and going close), important ranking points on the line.

A great rugby tournement with a new player. The real threat of a puma win (who would bet against them next week). The Wallabies and Springboks hammering each other for the no 2 spot. NZ looking to set records.

Roll on next week. A possible drop down the rankings table for the wallabies. A clash of the no 1 and 2 teams. The boks look to establish a good home record (4 from 5 this year) and the AB's approaching the record for all time consecutive wins. Habana equal with Cullen, Rocokoco and OBrien on the all time true scoring list.

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Post by Taylorman Sun 30 Sep 2012, 7:08 am

Even though both our wings had very good matches I have to give it to Habana who is probably the best in the world in the position at the moment. Knows the way to the tryline and gets to it without even acknowledging what's in the way of his getting there.

Fantastic effort today and after his tries against oz then NZ and now todays three is back to his very best.

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Post by anotherworldofpain Sun 30 Sep 2012, 12:04 pm

Yes. But my feeling is we might see a reserve combinator for NZ because there are some players needing game time and some needing a rest, and the tournament cup is already in Auckland.

My personal feeling is that both NZ and SA were made to look good by tiring opponents struggling with the length of the format and depth.

I expect NZ v SA to be more of a traditional slug fest with some real attitude and I think NZ discipline and lack of SA effective kicker (ironically) will seal it. But that depends on just who is wearing black on the weekend.

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Post by kiakahaaotearoa Sun 30 Sep 2012, 5:51 pm

But there is still the matter of a record for consecutive victories AWOP. McCaw, Carter, the Smiths got rested with 20 minutes to go which suggests Hansen was counting on them fronting up again for next weekend.

We are playing at altitude and we win seldom enough there. Winning every game in the inaugural championship is too good an opportunity to pass up. Hansen rightly said that records are a reflection of what you have done rather than what you can achieve but that is simply to keep the boys focused on next week's game and not looking beyond.

Hansen will also be wary of not sending out a sign of weakness to the NH teams in the autumn. If SA wins next Saturday, which is highly likely, it gives a sense of vulnerability to NZ for teams like Wales and England who can fancy containing the AB pack. Win in SA and the coaches will probably target other games in the calendar. The same principle applies to the Bledisloe extra in October. Look at what the win in Hong Kong did for Australian confidence. Smash them over again and they return the following year with their heads down. One cannot underestimate the psychological importance of winning.

I do agree though that it might well be a slug fest but given the attacking form of both teams it doesn't stop me from thinking of a game where Nonu slipped through with one shoe to send Dagg over for the winning try. That was a great match where the balance swayed throughout the match. SA have nothing to lose and NZ have the championship trophy already in the cabinet. So free their minds and free up the ball. Principally I want SA to come out like Argentina did to NZ last night. Then sustain it for more than 15 minutes obviously.

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Post by anotherworldofpain Sun 30 Sep 2012, 11:08 pm

Actually you could be right - the thing I'm forgetting is that NZ are now just two games short of the world record for consecutive wins.

And we know if they get past SA they will face the completely devastated Australia for the record...knocking off Lithuania in the "most unlikely record in sports" forever.

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Post by Taylorman Mon 01 Oct 2012, 12:34 am

Interesting JDV says absolutely nothing has changed since the Pumas draw from the Ab's website::

Springbok captain Jean de Villiers looked unimpressed when asked if the team had changed much after a draw to Argentina and back to back losses against the Wallabies and All Blacks, with the centre saying that the entire time the side were still looking at playing towards the old pressure based blueprint that had been effectively employed by Bulls and South African outfits in the past.
"We haven't changed one thing," he said.
"The thing that has changed is that we are now capitalising on the pressure we put on the opposition. People don't seem to understand that."

For one the aimless kicking of Steyn has changed and secondly the addition of Goosen by default opens up attacking opportunities which simply werent there previously so it depends how you define the word change.

There has certainly been significant change in fortune, in the points differential, in the number of tries scored, the players on the field, and despite all this JDV puts it down to purely execution and accuracy of the same plan? Assumedly something that could have been achieved in any of the games before this?

Even if hes right its at least down to a change in personnel on the field who (again assuming hes right) were obviously not playing to the game plan- hence its Meyers fault. So why doesnt he just say that...

If thats the case then its just as likely its because of a depleted Oz side. At least that makes more sense.

Sometimes you have to wonder what these guys are really thinking...

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Post by emack2 Mon 01 Oct 2012, 2:07 am

I have finally watched the All Blacks game tonight,run on team was arguably the strongest available.Bench with a couple of changes could be stronger but just my opinion.Not perfect but apart from the slow start and the odd error the most complete 4Ns performance to date.The Pumas played very well but were
outclassed today.Give them credit they scored a couple of good tries very solid forward,and showed some class behind.IF there are no injuries I would expect the same side to start.
The Boks game it was hard to judge maybe 9 of the RWC Australian squad started but the injuries completely ruined it as a game.The Boks for the first time
gelled for the full 80.The Forwards went well at the set piece and breakdown,and backs captilized on the pressure.De Villiers maybe correct iin saying they changed nothing.But Pianaar had a good game with his tactical kicking,Goosen was a threat on occassions and had a good start.Kirchener and Habana were dangerous runners,DeVilliers looked better as a 12.I wonder if Meyer has the guts to pick an unchanged side versus the All Blacks and leave Franny Steyn out.
Argentina may be sniffing blood versus the Wallabies in Rosario,as a neutral I hope they gain the Victory they deserve.
The All Blacks now travel to Soweto against a jubilant Bok side at altitude,never there best environment.IF they play as well as they did today and start well then an AB win is very possible.Boks at home at altitude never easy and probably start as favourites.Records mean nothing to me if the AB`s lose sad
but thats life.15 on the bounce isn`t to be sneezed at.The Third OZ match in the current circumstances I would expect an AB win followed by a NH Grand Slam.A year with one loss would be very good without losing any excellent.

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Post by ebop Mon 01 Oct 2012, 5:34 am

I'm feeling bullish about the ABs chances this weekend. I know Hansen is saying publicly that they haven't given the record much thought, but I bet they have set it as 'one' goal. How else do you motivate them? Donald Duck got given that name for stuffing up last time we had the chance. Thankfully he's now Hero Duck. The ABs care about these things and so do the fans. And, we have figured a way to score tries against defense minded teams. Big hoorah for the game of rugby!!
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Post by Taylorman Mon 01 Oct 2012, 6:48 am

I agree ebop. The record is the biggest carrot for this match.
Good thing is both sides are coming off big wins, both are in attacking moods.

Recently I think the high veldt advantage is somewhat a myth in terms of actual advantage over any other home match in SA. Our guys have all played there during zxv and we managed to win at the death last time in Soweto, the thinner air not apparently a problem if you can do those sorts of things.

Perhaps longer kicks might be an advantage but they had that here and didn't capitalise then.

If anything the travel factor is the main thing and we were lucky we could get mccaw and co off with 20 to go to start their recovery earlier.

No its all on and there can be no excuses for either side. Just a pity this isn't for the overall title as that would have been fantastic.

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Post by Biltong Mon 01 Oct 2012, 7:52 am

I look forward to this match, we still need a few players who could improve our matchday 22 but this is what we have and they mst go out and show up the all Blacks.

We have a good record against them even dring the last 8 years with a limited gameplan, Goosen will add a few strings to our bow and hopefully Meyer won't go back into his shell and make stupid selections.

If Frans Steyn is avaiable, I wouldn't want him to go in at 12, but rather repplace Kirchner, the combo of Goosen, de Villiers and Taute needs to be tested, if they can make it work against NZ then they can make it against any team.

It will also be good for the two youngsters confidence to be selected again. Wish we had JP Pietersen back, Strauss has quietly been doing his thing and carried the ball well, although Vermeulen, Alberts and Louw showed over the last two tests that they are a good combination, I would like to see Burger back.

But as far as the game goes, it will be a good contest, SA will make the breakdown highly contestable and NZ ay find it tougher to get front foot ball, I assume Carter will play so it will be interesting to see how Goosen Measures up.

All I know is it will be close, hopefully SA fires and make it a comfortable win, we need one of those over the All BLacks.
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Post by FerN Mon 01 Oct 2012, 8:17 am

Goosen didn't draw the players very well, but still the approach changed our game. He did have that one break as well. I think he was much improved, Morne couldn't kick the ball over either.

JDV looks much better at 12 than 13, so I will agree on Frans to be on 15 when he comes back.

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Post by anotherworldofpain Mon 01 Oct 2012, 9:25 am

Taylorman wrote:Interesting JDV says absolutely nothing has changed since the Pumas draw from the Ab's website::

Springbok captain Jean de Villiers looked unimpressed when asked if the team had changed much after a draw to Argentina and back to back losses against the Wallabies and All Blacks, with the centre saying that the entire time the side were still looking at playing towards the old pressure based blueprint that had been effectively employed by Bulls and South African outfits in the past.
"We haven't changed one thing," he said.
"The thing that has changed is that we are now capitalising on the pressure we put on the opposition. People don't seem to understand that."

For one the aimless kicking of Steyn has changed and secondly the addition of Goosen by default opens up attacking opportunities which simply werent there previously so it depends how you define the word change.

There has certainly been significant change in fortune, in the points differential, in the number of tries scored, the players on the field, and despite all this JDV puts it down to purely execution and accuracy of the same plan? Assumedly something that could have been achieved in any of the games before this?

Even if hes right its at least down to a change in personnel on the field who (again assuming hes right) were obviously not playing to the game plan- hence its Meyers fault. So why doesnt he just say that...

If thats the case then its just as likely its because of a depleted Oz side. At least that makes more sense.

Sometimes you have to wonder what these guys are really thinking...

He's cunning eh? He doesn't want Meyer to know that th players aren't following his game plan anymore.

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Post by Biltong Mon 01 Oct 2012, 9:32 am

Laugh
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Post by anotherworldofpain Mon 01 Oct 2012, 9:48 am

Next week Lambie will start but wearing a doug howlett wig.

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Post by Biltong Mon 01 Oct 2012, 10:18 am

He will have to wear high heels though, Meyer will wonder why Zane got so short.
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Post by emack2 Mon 01 Oct 2012, 10:54 am

Hi,Biltong I don`t like Kirchner,and you love Franny Steyn BUT on Saturday Kirchner ran really well.The Pumas for all there frailties and they played well are very good forward especially set piece.Mealamu said the AB pack was adequate but on Saturday there setpieces /breakdown was excellent.With Carter back given parity forward the backs will really hurt you.I`m not sure the Boks at present IF they fail to dominate forward can do likewise.Your Goalkickers will surely come good at some stage.On the veldt your long Range snipers will be having a go.Who`s the ref?if it`s Rolland or Barnes you`ve already won there homers.I don`t expect another Saturday when most things went rightfor both sides.But an old fashioned arm wrestle with goal kicking deciding hope i`m wrong but?

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Post by anotherworldofpain Mon 01 Oct 2012, 11:14 am

Biltong wrote:He will have to wear high heels though...[conveniently ignored in order to make joke at Zane's expense].

I knew there was something wrong with the way Kirchner was running, but I didn't think to look at his feet. king

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Post by Biltong Mon 01 Oct 2012, 11:15 am

I don't know who the referee will be Alan, Kirchner did have a good game, but he isn't my favouite either, he still doesn't convince me he plays with the team but rather just in it.

I honestly have no idea what to expect on Saturday coming, I think the all Blacks will struggle, it will be close but I expect us to be up for it.

The All Blacks are good, there is no doubt about that, but as we have seen so many times over the past 8 years, more than any other team, the Boks know they can beat them.
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Post by Biltong Mon 01 Oct 2012, 11:16 am

anotherworldofpain wrote:
Biltong wrote:He will have to wear high heels though...[conveniently ignored in order to make joke at Zane's expense].

I knew there was something wrong with the way Kirchner was running, but I didn't think to look at his feet. king
Well now you know why he can't step. Whistle


Ankle.....twist.....get it? Laugh
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Post by anotherworldofpain Mon 01 Oct 2012, 11:22 am

drumroll

Zane "Rocky Horror" Kirchner it is then.

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Post by Biltong Mon 01 Oct 2012, 11:24 am

It's a time warp!
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Post by anotherworldofpain Mon 01 Oct 2012, 11:25 am

Or is it a step to the left?

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Post by Biltong Mon 01 Oct 2012, 11:26 am

Nope, a jump to the left. He can't step.
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Post by anotherworldofpain Mon 01 Oct 2012, 11:28 am

Yahoo Love it.

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Post by blackcanelion Mon 01 Oct 2012, 11:32 am

So boks are favourites.
Another tight hard, high intensity game dominated by defence.

That's my guess.

Interesting to note. The boks are nz's bugbear at the moment. 8 wins in the last 8 years (out of 21). More to the point 6 out of 10 games in Africa. I guess the saving grace for us was many of those losing ab teams were significantly under strength. This team should be at full strength with no equivalent of Stephen Donald or xavier rush in the starting lineup.

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Post by Biltong Mon 01 Oct 2012, 11:34 am

well that cut both ways, SA sent a few understrength teams to NZ as well.

But the point here is SA is on the up, NZ are already there, some have hinted this is a dead rubber, between SA and NZ there is never a dead rubber, only coaches that sometimes send poor teams across the Indian ocean.
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Post by emack2 Mon 01 Oct 2012, 11:36 am

Biltong,Boks at home always a safe bet,BUT the All Blacks are THE only side to consistently win in SA.Don`t know exact stats but it must be nearly 50/50.
Of course the Boks will be up for it but so will be the AB`s,. I think it will come down to the defences and taking of chances.Boks had the best of the game Saturday no question.BUT for the first 20 minutes it was scoreless though Boks could have had a lot of points by then.In the last 10 with 14 men OZ looked really dangerous and 14-3 at half time was still winnable for them.

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Post by anotherworldofpain Mon 01 Oct 2012, 11:38 am

The NZ team selection will be very interesting.

Could some kind of mind game be played by deliberately sending an understrength combinator to SA, sacrificing the "record attempt" as unimportant in the name of further developing the ABs and resting core players ahead of the trip north?? Would that slap in the face to SA rugby appear a satisfying way to rub in the fact that NZ won the 4RC with the SA home game to spare? Would it achieve anything?

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Post by Biltong Mon 01 Oct 2012, 11:42 am

Doubt the all Blacks would do that AWOP.
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Post by blackcanelion Mon 01 Oct 2012, 11:53 am

I agree. The boks are favourites in my opinion. You can only play whoever the opposition puts up. It just demonstrates if we put out a development team, or lose key players against the boks we as likely as not to lose. I'm just thankful we don't have to rely on beaver....

Whilst there is no such thing as a dead rubber, I wonder if the ab,s may be short on intensity. It's going to be a game of fine margins. They have the trophy. The boks have everything to play for.

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Post by anotherworldofpain Mon 01 Oct 2012, 11:57 am

All together!!!

music You don't have to rely on beaver, but ... music

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Post by Biltong Mon 01 Oct 2012, 12:01 pm

blackcanelion wrote:I agree. The boks are favourites in my opinion. You can only play whoever the opposition puts up. It just demonstrates if we put out a development team, or lose key players against the boks we as likely as not to lose. I'm just thankful we don't have to rely on beaver....

Whilst there is no such thing as a dead rubber, I wonder if the ab,s may be short on intensity. It's going to be a game of fine margins. They have the trophy. The boks have everything to play for.
well if they are short on intensity, then the better for us.
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Post by blackcanelion Mon 01 Oct 2012, 12:08 pm

I've think the boks have the nucleus of a great team. They're potentially a very scary team if they embrace a running game. Big hard, fast intense, skilled.... Of the teams I saw live last year they looked to have the most room to improve and they were already good....

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Post by Biltong Mon 01 Oct 2012, 12:09 pm

well let's hope it continues. With Meyer you never know what he is thinking.
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Post by blackcanelion Mon 01 Oct 2012, 12:14 pm

It should be interesting. Just a thought. If the boks lose in the weekend and have a horror tour in November, do you think he'll go? Who will replace him if he does.

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Post by Taylorman Mon 01 Oct 2012, 12:21 pm

blackcanelion wrote:I've think the boks have the nucleus of a great team. They're potentially a very scary team if they embrace a running game. Big hard, fast intense, skilled.... Of the teams I saw live last year they looked to have the most room to improve and they were already good....

Yep...been saying this for a while bc. Next year will be interesting now meyer has seen what he can get out good backs if this young pack continues to improve. He'll really start eyeing up some exciting attacking talent at sxv time.

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Post by kiakahaaotearoa Mon 01 Oct 2012, 3:32 pm

No team has been dominant this 4N for me. That seems strange to say when the ABs until now unbeaten. But they haven't been able to impose their game on anyone but Argentina. Against Australia, they didn't allow them to get into either game but neither did they look particularly convincing. SA had a more dominant home game against Argentina and should really have won in Dunedin.

I think Meyer will go for a similar gameplan to Dunedin where the forwards got in the faces of NZ and looked to spoil AB ball. It'll be interesting to see whether NZ have learned from that game and look to protect the ball more and work their way up the middle of the ground before they try to go wide.

Whether it turns into a slug fest largely depends on whether NZ is able to gain any ascendancy either in the scoreboard or in general play. If SA restrict NZ and dominate possession they just need to be smarter with their kicking and run the ball more at the NZ line plugging for gaps.

If the ABs silence the crowd like in Argentina by scoring then the game will open up and that'll benefit NZ. SA will look to keep things tight and dominate possession. The less NZ runs at them the better and they will hopefully take their scoring chances more. Obviously if the Boks score through tries early on, then the game will be interesting in terms of evolution.

What's clear is SA at home on the high veld are favourites. Plenty of motivation for both sides and psychological points to score. No such thing as a dead rubber indeed.

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Post by Taylorman Mon 01 Oct 2012, 6:28 pm

And NZ didn't so much dominate Argentina but rather be more efficient than them. The territory and possession stats were in argies favour.

Same will be the case against SA. Its just we use the ball more effectively with less dead ends that other sides tend to have against us.

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Post by Taylorman Mon 01 Oct 2012, 6:42 pm

Geez hadn't realised we were 32-8 down at half time in Soweto in'10. That's some comeback...knew we were behind but not by that much.

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Post by kiakahaaotearoa Mon 01 Oct 2012, 7:01 pm

Wow that is a lot. Can't imagine SA have lost many with that kind of half time lead...

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Post by disneychilly Mon 01 Oct 2012, 7:46 pm

Guys the score was 29-22 at fulltime. Was a typo or a brain fart.

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Post by Taylorman Mon 01 Oct 2012, 8:25 pm

Yeah was wondering...Stuff's typo probably. Didnt bother checking it as theyre not usually that bad...

http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/all-blacks/7754426/Rejigged-Springboks-pose-threat-to-All-Blacks

"The All Blacks played in Soweto for the first time in 2010 and needed late tries to McCaw and Israel Dagg to mute a crowd of more than 94,000. The All Blacks trailed 32-8 at halftime that day"

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Post by kiakahaaotearoa Mon 01 Oct 2012, 8:35 pm

Or Dagg got up to 88 mph and McCaw used his flux capacitor to break the space time continuum and went back in time at half time and changed the scores.

Probably a typo but you never know...

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Post by emack2 Mon 01 Oct 2012, 11:30 pm

I don`t care about domination in a match,it is about scoring more points.In any match BOTH sides will get options to convert into points.The one that does so wins,simplistic but realistic.An example a side has a great long range goal kicker you have 9 penalties kickable in his range he kicks 4 out of 9.The other side has 9 penalties but the goal kicker does`nt have the range so you go to the corner
score a converted try and kick two penalties.You win it is as simple as that stats about territory or possesion mean nothing.More often than not a stupid act in the heat of the moment,a yellow card decides a match.On Saturday long range goal kicks will be attempted by the Boks[Goosen?] on the veldt have a better chance than at sea level.Expect the usual Bok v AB dog fight and a close game,Defence on top and not many tries 2 v1 or less

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Post by nganboy Tue 02 Oct 2012, 1:04 am

Boks are favourites to win. On the way up and something to prove at home.
ABs have won the trophey already and have travel to contend with.

McCaw and Carter will be injured pregame.
Cruden will be carted off after 20 mins leaving Barrett to run the show.
Half the team will be sick and the the ref will have been bought.
SA to win on the 81st minute with a 48 metre drop goal.

All excuses covered.
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Post by Taylorman Tue 02 Oct 2012, 1:14 am

Part of its also about clicking on the day. ABs have been frustrated in their ability to make passes stick, run the right lines etc and to a large extent finally got a lot of it right last weekend. So in one respect they are starting to build some kind of momentum.

But so are SA, Theyve added strings to their bows that have made instant improvement from one match to the next.

Theyre now unpredictable and thats not good in a way for NZ, who can normally rely on SA to do certain things, scoring 50-60 metere tries through several passes the least of them.. With a more mobile 10 and a couple of other changes even they don't know what theyre capable of but it must feel good in their camp.

The other side is unpredictability can also bring bad things- turnovers being the main one the ABs will look to exploit. And this week theyre up against the masters of the fast ball who have done this stuff for years. The other thing being just how bad were this Oz side with all their problems.

Any way you look at it, its still a fascinating prospect and would have been a fitting final...

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Post by Taylorman Tue 02 Oct 2012, 1:25 am

nganboy wrote:Boks are favourites to win.

By favourites do we mean at the bookies- both here and in SA? Thats the best measure of a favourite. Everything else is conjuncture and not back by one's 'bucks' and I'd say the AB's will lead the betting in both countries- more so here and probably 'just' in SA.


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Post by nganboy Tue 02 Oct 2012, 4:32 am

no I mean so that we have an excuse if we lose
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