It's Now Or Never

Tomorrow's semi-finals are almost upon us and for three of the semi-finalists you feel it is a case of now or never.

Roger Federer, who takes on Novak Djokovic, in the first semi-final is now 30 and possibly in the twilight of his career. It is two and a half years since his last slam win and time is fast running out for him you feel. However, if he wins tomorrow he will feel he has a golden chance to end that long wait for his 17th slam as he would then go into the final as a warm favourite whoever he faces. A defeat though and you have to feel a final great chance has slipped through his fingers so It's Now Or Never Mark I

Andy Murray, who takes on Jo-Wilifried Tsonga, one feels will never get a better chance to reach a Wimbledon Final as in future years he is likely to face Nadal, Djokovic or Federer in the semis. If he doesn't do it this year then you have to feel he never will reach the final at Wimbledon so It's Now Or Never Mark II

Jo-Wilifried Tsonga, who takes on Andy Murray, is 27 and you feel he will never get a better chance to reach a Wimbledon Final as time runs out for him and will feel he has a good fighting chance against Andy Murray so It's Now Or Never Mark III

I said at the start of the tournament it would be quite fitting to be a Tsonga vs Federer final after last year, kind of like when Rafa played Soderling in the final of the French Open a year on from 'that' defeat. It had a feel of destiny about it, but watching Novak in his last few matches I'm starting to think Novak is taking destiny into his own hands.

Well Craig I do agree on Roger this is probably his last best chance for wimbeldon and that may cause him to play great and breathtaking tennis but it is also a lot of pressure. It is certainly a match that he has the ability to win. But with Nadal out this looks like a golden opportunity not to be squandered.

CAS wrote:I said at the start of the tournament it would be quite fitting to be a Tsonga vs Federer final after last year, kind of like when Rafa played Soderling in the final of the French Open a year on from 'that' defeat. It had a feel of destiny about it, but watching Novak in his last few matches I'm starting to think Novak is taking destiny into his own hands.

Tats interesting

Unless Fed produces his old magic I see no chance of a win even though there would be a good fight, but I certainly won't miss the match.

socal1976 wrote:Well Craig I do agree on Roger this is probably his last best chance for wimbeldon and that may cause him to play great and breathtaking tennis but it is also a lot of pressure. It is certainly a match that he has the ability to win. But with Nadal out this looks like a golden opportunity not to be squandered.

Let's not talk about pressure SoCal. Fed has proven he can handle pressure very well throughout his career. From being two sets down to love and facing match points in the 4th set, he came back in the Wimbledon final 2008, yes I know he didn't win, but even when there was intense pressure, he can handle it. It's been commented many times how comfortably he dealt with the pressure of being No.1 and being expected to win slams.

Djokovic has become better at dealing with pressure but he's still a bit behind Fed. Even last year he retired a match, apparently 'injured'. If he knew he was carrying an injury (@ Cinci), why did he even enter the match? Fed said he wouldn't do that, so why did Djokovic? Maybe the fact Djokovic was trailing so far behind is why he retired rather than carrying any injury? Not to mention how he slipped up against Federer at last year's RG match when a record was on the line and would also have become World No.1 if he'd won. He didn't handle the pressure well then. Fed showed guts already in this Wimbledon in seeing off Benny despite being 2 points away from the exit on 6 different occasions. Fed can deal with pressure alright and I expect he will handle it well tomorrow.

Yes did Fed handle the pressure well when he squandered two years of break points in the match Nadal tore his heart out for all the world to see in wimbeldon of 2008? You see every player wins some and loses some. But you seem to selectively pick out things for Djokovic and raise them in a manner bereft of context. I doubt if you talked to a thousand tennis people that any of them would tell you Novak has a problem dealing with pressure and if anything has been the best at it the last 18 months. He has had all the pressure on him the whole time. I didn't make any accusation that fed couldn't deal with pressure and then you had to go with the fact that Novak withdrew from the match in cincy. it was obvious for the world to see he was suffering a very bad back that summer and still won the USO. If he withdrew in 7 tournaments that summer and won the USO I could care less. The guy practically had to be carried off the court at one stage. So he chose to give it a go, Fed would not have entered the match, that doesn't tell me anything particularly telling. Who cares, that isn't what will or won't win the match. Fed can handle the pressure so can Novak, but your long laundry list of Novak's supposed failings is really seemingly oblivious of what has actually happened in the last 18 plus months in tennis.

Nole right now is good at adapting to pressure and he would need that in big time on tomorrow's match, coz a loss against a 31 year old out of Form Fed would raise the questions.

Nole might win but the pressure will surely be upon him, and with crowd behind Fed for a fairy tale Wimbledon its not gonna be easy.

Its a tough match for both of them.

Meh there's always next year!

It's a fair assessment, but truly there are always more chances.

In Feds case I now have a vision of him winning first up next Super Saturday then watching Djokovic and Nadl do each other up for 6 hours then one oming back 18 hours later to face Fed.

Hey, a guy can dream, right?

socal1976 wrote:Yes did Fed handle the pressure well when he squandered two years of break points in the match Nadal tore his heart out for all the world to see in wimbeldon of 2008? You see every player wins some and loses some. But you seem to selectively pick out things for Djokovic and raise them in a manner bereft of context. I doubt if you talked to a thousand tennis people that any of them would tell you Novak has a problem dealing with pressure and if anything has been the best at it the last 18 months. He has had all the pressure on him the whole time. I didn't make any accusation that fed couldn't deal with pressure and then you had to go with the fact that Novak withdrew from the match in cincy. it was obvious for the world to see he was suffering a very bad back that summer and still won the USO. If he withdrew in 7 tournaments that summer and won the USO I could care less. The guy practically had to be carried off the court at one stage. So he chose to give it a go, Fed would not have entered the match, that doesn't tell me anything particularly telling. Who cares, that isn't what will or won't win the match. Fed can handle the pressure so can Novak, but your long laundry list of Novak's supposed failings is really seemingly oblivious of what has actually happened in the last 18 plus months in tennis.

Fed bounced back pretty well after that Wimbledon final in 2008 and won it the following year, along with making all the finals @ the grand slams even though he suffered further heartache by losing to Nadal again @ the Aussie Open at the beginning of the year. I'm not selectively picking from last year. I'm picking out examples of where he didn't deal with pressure when the pressure was intense. Fed's scornful reaction to Novak's 1/100 shot on match points @ the USO really sums up Djokovic's attitude. Go for broke. But again, there wasn't the same pressure in that match as there was in the French Open when Novak had a chance to break a record and claim No.1. He didn't do it. Again a month ago he had the same pressure of making the history books and again it didn't happen. I agree Novak copes with the intense pressure in individual grand slam matches well but not when other things are at stake like records and the No.1 ranking. Hence why I'm intrigued by how tomorrow will plan out.

It does say a lot though, if Djokovic knew his back was in such a bad state in the Cinci final, why did he play it? You've often made out that 1/100 shot @ the USO was pure genius when nearly everyone else, including most commentators consider it a lucky shot. However, given how he tried to play the Cinci final and then had to be nearly stretched off, it does rather suggest he's more a chancer (when you consider what he did @ the USO), doesn't it? It can't be denied that often you sound like Djokovic's press secretary rather than merely a fan! I mean even though I'm a Federer fan, I'm predicting a Djokovic win tomorrow. I can't see you predicting the same even if the H2H in the slams between the two was 10-5 in Fed's favour.

Lucius the reason I may sound like his press secretary is because I am the only Novak fan and i find that despite his number 1 ranking there are a lot of people ignorant about his game and him. I am put in the position as the only person who can objectively counter some really silly comments as the only Novak fan. In fact, there are so many that I chose to ignore many and only respond to the more pressing ones.

The fact of the matter is that in terms of dealing with pressure I am not concerned. In every match he has played Federer it has been a road match, and the fans at wimby are much fairer and nicer than Awholes in Paris and New York, every year #1 and #2 for worst fans on the tour. When you made a well reasoned argument that Fed had a little shot at the number 1 I agreed but said I would defer judgement till after wimby because that is where a lot will be decided. If Novak plays crappy I will say it and often do.

It will be interesting seeing who the crowd appears to favour but I wouldn't necessarily say the fans here are fairer, they probably will favour Fed over Djokovic (Fed has won 6 titles here, Djokovic just the 1). The only difference @ Wimbledon is that we Brits are less vocal and more reserved than the Americans and the French but that doesn't mean we're any less partisan. I'm sure the crowd will probably get behind Fed more than Djokovic, isn't that how it usually is @ tournaments (apart from the Serbian open)?

You are the only Djokovic fan here and I can't deny you're very gracious when Djokovic loses. I'm not so sure you're always objective but I can understand that Wimbledon is one of the big events in the tennis calendar so you won't be entirely objective (as you obviously want Novak to win a 2nd title) which will tie Nadal's number of Wimbledon's titles even though arguably Nadal is the better grass court player!

Djokovic-Federer 1 pm start? Sadly I will miss the majority of this match. Help me?

Josiah Maiestas wrote:Djokovic-Federer 1 pm start? Sadly I will miss the majority of this match. Help me?

Same here, its 8 AM here and I have to leave for work.

luciusmann wrote:It will be interesting seeing who the crowd appears to favour but I wouldn't necessarily say the fans here are fairer, they probably will favour Fed over Djokovic (Fed has won 6 titles here, Djokovic just the 1). The only difference @ Wimbledon is that we Brits are less vocal and more reserved than the Americans and the French but that doesn't mean we're any less partisan. I'm sure the crowd will probably get behind Fed more than Djokovic, isn't that how it usually is @ tournaments (apart from the Serbian open)?

You are the only Djokovic fan here and I can't deny you're very gracious when Djokovic loses. I'm not so sure you're always objective but I can understand that Wimbledon is one of the big events in the tennis calendar so you won't be entirely objective (as you obviously want Novak to win a 2nd title) which will tie Nadal's number of Wimbledon's titles even though arguably Nadal is the better grass court player!

Every Novak match outside of serbia Fed is the favorite. That is the reality of the situation and Novak has managed well enough to beat Roger 12 wins v. 14 losses in all road matches. And I am sure it will be the same way on friday. i doubt it will impact the match Novak is well used to being the villain. And what are you talking about with 1 in 100 shot of hitting THE SHOT against Roger. Have you ever seen Novak return serve try more like that shot is about 30 percent shot, like a long range 3 pointer in basketball. He will hit one or two of them for you int the match tomorrow right off Roger's first serve so I dispute you shady new math of 1 in 100. Please accept this as my lodging of a formal protest on that point, consider it officially in dispute.

The 1st set is so crucial. Roger is not much a chaser and I think the 1st set in the bank will allow for him to play with less urgency. That said I am not sure Djokovic will want to chase the match should he concede the first set.

Interestingly in 1st set of all his matches in the tournament Djokovic has faced 10 BP's and 4 have been converted against him. That for me is where Djokovic has a slight weakness and Federer needs to start quickly. Also what is intersting is that in the last sets that Federer has won he has faced 3 BP's and lost his serve once. So Federer once in control is quite difficult to dislosdge, though past US Opens have suggested otherwise.

In a nutshell If Federer is to win, he must serve really well and punish the Djokovic 2nd serve.

Djokovic needs to return well and pressure the Federer serve as he will be able to create BP opportunities. Djokovic in 4 for me.

Luciusmann, that is a very strange set of arguments.

Djokovic failing to win 4 slams in a row last month shows he can't handle pressure? Roger has fallen at the same hurdle, at that same tournament, against the same player twice! Why does that not mean Roger can't handle the pressure?

You say Novak can't handle the pressure when the number 1 ranking is on the line. Firstly, his own number 1 ranking has not been on the line until today, so that's a totally untested assertion. As for claiming the number 1 spot, yes, he fell short at RG11 but then took it a month later at Wimbledon (where, as I recall, he had a pretty good result).

As for Roger's number 1 ranking, shall we look at the 2008 American hard court season, where for the first time he has a rival capable of taking the number 1 spot? What happened? Two early round exits, Nadal gets the number 1 spot.

Shall we also look at his collapse from 5-3 and 40-15 to 5-7 in the 5th at the last USO (including a double fault at break point)? Shall we look at being 5-2 up in first set at RG11, missing a drop shot and losing 5-7? Shall we look at his 5th set collapse and subsequent tears at AO09?

I know that for every example I've given, there is another example where Fed has pulled a great shot or produced some clutch serving under the biggest pressure. And for what it's worth, I think that anyone who achieves what Roger has, MUST be able to handle pressure well.

But I can't stand this tendency to turn a blind eye to occasions when Fed has failed but to magnify occasions when other players fall short.

I don't know what you mean by this Mark thing but tell me: would you be happy if Murray were going to win as many slam as Federer from now onwards? I think the answer should be yes........

HM Murdoch wrote:Luciusmann, that is a very strange set of arguments.

Djokovic failing to win 4 slams in a row last month shows he can't handle pressure? Roger has fallen at the same hurdle, at that same tournament, against the same player twice! Why does that not mean Roger can't handle the pressure?

You say Novak can't handle the pressure when the number 1 ranking is on the line. Firstly, his own number 1 ranking has not been on the line until today, so that's a totally untested assertion. As for claiming the number 1 spot, yes, he fell short at RG11 but then took it a month later at Wimbledon (where, as I recall, he had a pretty good result).

As for Roger's number 1 ranking, shall we look at the 2008 American hard court season, where for the first time he has a rival capable of taking the number 1 spot? What happened? Two early round exits, Nadal gets the number 1 spot.

Shall we also look at his collapse from 5-3 and 40-15 to 5-7 in the 5th at the last USO (including a double fault at break point)? Shall we look at being 5-2 up in first set at RG11, missing a drop shot and losing 5-7? Shall we look at his 5th set collapse and subsequent tears at AO09?

I know that for every example I've given, there is another example where Fed has pulled a great shot or produced some clutch serving under the biggest pressure. And for what it's worth, I think that anyone who achieves what Roger has, MUST be able to handle pressure well.

But I can't stand this tendency to turn a blind eye to occasions when Fed has failed but to magnify occasions when other players fall short.

Exactly Murdoch that is what I was trying to say but you summed it up much better than I did. Both guys can handle the big match and big time pressure. That double standard does exist. Fed is never lucky, Novak hit the luckiest shot ever according to some at the USO. Lucius seems to argue that there is some significant advantage for either player in this situation. I don't see that Fed is better than Novak or vice versa on the matter of handling pressure at least at this point in their careers.

Jeremy_Kyle wrote:I don't know what you mean by this Mark thing but tell me: would you be happy if Murray were going to win as many slam as Federer from now onwards? I think the answer should be yes........

The Mark was just the three examples of Now or Never. For varying reasons for these three guys it is now or never. For Murray it is probably the best chance he will ever have of reaching the Wimbledon Final, for Federer it is probably his best chance left to win slam 17 and for Tsonga it is likely to be his best chance to win Wimbledon and his first slam. Nothing to do with Federer's previous 16 slam wins - just the here and now. Hope that explains things.

Apologies, I didn't explain myself well.....what I wanted to say was: would you be happy if Murray was going to win as many slams ( or to have the same probability to win) as Federer from now on. This means, starting from zero from now the two of them.....

Anyway I agree it's a chance for the two of them to do something great and that's not necessarily happening again........

I'd be happy with one slam win never mind 16.

I think the Elvis-like/Just one Cornetto It's Now or Never scenario is about right for today's semis.
Murray, surely, will NEVER have a better chance to get a Wimbledon final. Interestingly, he may actually be under LESS pressure against JWT than against Ferrer. Against the Spaniard he knew he would never forgive himself if he lost and never had the chance to get through to a less-hard semi.
Murray was up against a wonderfully-moving, never-say-die opponent playing the tennis of his life, but he got through.
JWT will be a different. He'll hit more winners than Ferrer but make more errors. Normally I would reckon Murray would win this. But I've suffered so many years of watching Britons struggle and ultimately fail to make an SW19 final that I'm going to go for Tsonga.
Twould love to see Rog prevail in the other semi, but it has to be Djoko. Having said that, Rog has much more chance in a semi at Wimbledon against the Serb than elsewhere. One fact - Fed has NEVER lost a Wimbledon semi. Also, this is their first meeting on grass.

HM Murdoch wrote:Luciusmann, that is a very strange set of arguments.

Djokovic failing to win 4 slams in a row last month shows he can't handle pressure? Roger has fallen at the same hurdle, at that same tournament, against the same player twice! Why does that not mean Roger can't handle the pressure?

You say Novak can't handle the pressure when the number 1 ranking is on the line. Firstly, his own number 1 ranking has not been on the line until today, so that's a totally untested assertion. As for claiming the number 1 spot, yes, he fell short at RG11 but then took it a month later at Wimbledon (where, as I recall, he had a pretty good result).

As for Roger's number 1 ranking, shall we look at the 2008 American hard court season, where for the first time he has a rival capable of taking the number 1 spot? What happened? Two early round exits, Nadal gets the number 1 spot.

Shall we also look at his collapse from 5-3 and 40-15 to 5-7 in the 5th at the last USO (including a double fault at break point)? Shall we look at being 5-2 up in first set at RG11, missing a drop shot and losing 5-7? Shall we look at his 5th set collapse and subsequent tears at AO09?

I know that for every example I've given, there is another example where Fed has pulled a great shot or produced some clutch serving under the biggest pressure. And for what it's worth, I think that anyone who achieves what Roger has, MUST be able to handle pressure well.

But I can't stand this tendency to turn a blind eye to occasions when Fed has failed but to magnify occasions when other players fall short.

Maybe from others but not true from me. You're generalising in saying that's true of me, which to be honest is very sloppy from you HM Murdoch (when it's even true not for me). Djokovic is known for retiring in matches when he's losing, that'a fact. He's retired in countless matches and not any matches, they've been in grand slams matches too. The fact Novak did it even last year is not magnifying an occasion he has does this but drawing attention to something which he has done throughout his career. It isn't a one off occasion that happens once in a few years, it even happened last year during that remarkable run!

You've also distorted what I've said and addressed the distorted points rather than the actual point I was getting across. I said very clearly that when Djokovic has had records on the line he's fallen short, or had a lot on the line. What did Fed have on the like @ the Aussie Open 2009? Fed had a lot on the line in Wimbledon '08 and losing in those subsequent two hard court tournaments is a sign of weakness but he got destroyed @ the French Open and lost Wimbledon to his main rival, of course that would affect him. Fed handled the pressure of being a champion fantastically when he started winning multiple slams and all you can do is dig up examples when he found it hard when he was getting beaten after he'd dominated for so long? Desperate I'm afraid. Novak has only dominated for a while, I don't share the rosy view you do about Djokovic's excellent handling. When record are on the line he hasn't done it well. He can change that today though.

I think Federer will win it. Djokovic has lost his cloak of invincibility and neither of the other two will win it cos they aint good enough I don't reckon.