Stat's 6N team and B&I Lions XV

HEALTH WARNING: IF YOU LIKE YOUR STATS RAW, THEN THIS IS THE PLACE FOR YOU!

Based on the compiled statistics, I thought I'd see what the stats are telling us about who the best players were in each position from this season's 6Ns championship and then reflect on what the stats are suggesting for a B&I Lions starting XV were it selected on effort in the 2012 6Ns.

STATISTICALLY THE BEST OF THE 6NS:

15. Halfpenny (W) - honourable mention Kearney (Ire)
14. Bowe (Ire) - honourable mention North (W)
13. J Davies (W) - honourable mention Rougerie (F)
12. Fofana (F)
11. Cuthbert (W) - honourable mention Malzieu (F)
10. Priestland (W) - honourable mentions Sexton (Ire) & Trinh-Duc (F)
9. Phillips (W)

1. Jenkins (W)
2. Ford (S) - honourable mentions Best (Ire) & Hartley (E)
3. A Jones (W)
4. I Evans (W)
5. Gray (S)
6. Croft (E)
7. Rennie (S)
8. Parisse (Ita) - honourable mentions Denton (S), Faletau (W), Morgan (E)

Where the stats were close, I've given honourable mentions to the other contenders. Bear in mind that this ignores units, leadership skills and the many other attributes that are simply not measurable in a meaningful way. 8 Welshmen, 3 Scots (who says I'm not biased, but the stats never lie! ), 1 Englishman, 1 Irishman, 1 Frenchman and 1 Italian


STATISTICALLY THE CURRENT B&I LIONS:

15. Halfpenny (W) - honourable mention Kearney (Ire)
14. Bowe (Ire) - honourable mention North (W)
13. J Davies (W)
12. Barritt (E) for his tackling or Roberts (W) for his running with ball in hand - eaksy-peaksy
11. Cuthbert (W) -
10. Priestland (W) - honourable mention Sexton (Ire)
9. Phillips (W)

1. Jenkins (W)
2. Ford (S) - honourable mentions Best (Ire) & Hartley (E)
3. A Jones (W)
4. I Evans (W)
5. Gray (S)
6. Croft (E)
7. Rennie (S)
8. take your pick from Denton (S), Faletau (W), or Morgan (E) - statistically too close to call at high confidence intervals

Still heavily Welsh loaded, reflecting their worthy success in the 6Ns



Credit: espnscrum.com

The detailed series (see earlier threads for a full intro):
Team stats: https://www.606v2.com/t26301-don-t-read-any-further-if-you-don-t-like-stats-6ns-team-summary
Front row stats: https://www.606v2.com/t26376-stat-alert-player-summaries-from-6ns-the-front-row
Second row stats: https://www.606v2.com/t26386-stat-alert-player-summaries-from-6ns-the-boiler-room
Back row stats: https://www.606v2.com/t26392-stat-alert-player-summaries-from-6ns-the-back-row
Half-back stats: https://www.606v2.com/t26427-stat-alert-player-summaries-from-6ns-the-half-backs
The midfield's stats: https://www.606v2.com/t26432-stat-alert-player-summaries-from-6ns-the-midfield
The back three's stats: https://www.606v2.com/t26440-stat-alert-player-summaries-from-6ns-the-back-three

No Dan Lydiate the player of the tournament

RubyGuby wrote:No Dan Lydiate the player of the tournament

Correct, Ruby, based only on stats and not the the internet votes of 3 million Welsh folks - which do you think is more accurate?

Statistically, the B&I Lions does not include France.

gowershowerpower wrote:Statistically, the B&I Lions does not include France.

Statistically, with 100% confidence interval, you would be correct - pls read again

There's nothing like a post with a slightly complex premise to sort the wheat from the totally imbecilic.

gowershowerpower wrote:Statistically, the B&I Lions does not include France.

Come come young man, for God's sake apply One's glasses.

Absolutely sterling (or should that be Stirling?! - Oh the wit) job on the stats and summaries AsLongAs.

gowershowerpower wrote:It's damn lucky that the french players and parisse didn't top each of the stats, otherwise this post would have been an absolute corker.

Fair enough, gower, the honourable mentions must be adjusted too - my bad

I see no issues in there gowers, please enlighten me.

gowershowerpower wrote:The error is in the shoddy cut and paste job that the OP has made to produce the second list.

I will happily take apologies.

Regards.

gower, why not contribute something (agreement, disagreement, opinion) instead of having a pop? Bit sad really ...

Chjw131 wrote:I see no issues in there gowers, please enlighten me.

Chjw, I have now amended the honourable mentions against the B&I Lions which were copy and pasted from the 6Ns side above and hence originally included two French players - all-in-all, hopefully a minor distraction. Any names in either side that you are surprised to see, mate?

gowershowerpower wrote:I must have contributed something because you have editied your post accordingly.

Sad? Sitting by your laptop compiling numerous threads based on stats is a bit, um, sad. No?

A desktop actually, and I've quite enjoyed doing it and found it informative - each to their own

Welcome home Gower - Enjoy ther Slam

Thoroughly enjoyed it thanks. Not as much as I enjoyed the compilation of stats on this thread though. Very informative indeed.

gowershowerpower wrote:I must have contributed something because you have editied your post accordingly.

Sad? Sitting by your laptop compiling numerous threads based on stats is a bit, um, sad. No?

^ What a fantastic contribution.

The man has put a bit of effort into an interesting series of articles. If every poster on here paid even half the ammount of care and attention as ASBO it would be a better forum.

All in all I would say the Team is pretty accurate when taking into account who played well and who didn't in the 6N. It's a comforting thought to look at the side and think no real weaknesses.....

Personal favouritism would have me put Ford over the hooker contest and Denton in the no.8 contest.

TBH though I would take big Dod North over Bowe.

Very well done ASBO, I think I am going to make you the honorary "main peanut in the packet" statistician on V2.

Here is your badge ( he says as he pins the square root of 1 onto Asbo'
s chest)

Spoiler:

gowers, please do us all a favour and go away in jerky motions.

AsLongAs - I think the list and stats are generally pretty reflective of performance. As you say they can't take into account POC's leadership qualities or the previous experience of tourists such as Croft etc...

Perhaos switching 1/2P for Kearney and IEvans for POC i'd be relatively happy with that as a Lions XV. Let's hope there'll be more English lads on the bench though!

Chjw131 wrote:gowers, please do us all a favour and go away in jerky motions.

AsLongAs - I think the list and stats are generally pretty reflective of performance. As you say they can't take into account POC's leadership qualities or the previous experience of tourists such as Croft etc...

Perhaos switching 1/2P for Kearney and IEvans for POC i'd be relatively happy with that as a Lions XV. Let's hope there'll be more English lads on the bench though!

If it's squads of XXII, I can see someone like Robshaw getting the backrow bench slot cos he covers all 3 positions to a reasonable degree.

The stats used, did you take the average/gave or the total e.g., Lydiate did not play in the first game. Croft did not make many tackles for a 6 and he also missed a number of tackles excluding dropping the ball in front of the try line?

[quote="AsLongAsBut100ofUs"]

Chjw131 wrote:
If it's squads of XXII, I can see someone like Robshaw getting the backrow bench slot cos he covers all 3 positions to a reasonable degree.

Sean O'Brien can do that too,there's oing to be some seriously talented players not even making the tour next year.I think this is the most talented group of players the Lions will have had since the game turned pro and I'll stick kmy neck out and predict a whitewash to the Lions (assuming no crazy injury crisis happens)

I reckon this will be the best chance the Lions have had to win the series that I can clearly remember. I seriously think we'll travel as the favourites.

There will be a truck load of really good players left behind. Particularly in the backrow.

6. Croft, Ferris, Brown, Lydiate,
7. Rennie, Barclay, Warburton, Robshaw, SOB
8. Faletau, Morgan, Denton, Heaslip

[quote="asoreleftshoulder"]

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

Chjw131 wrote:
If it's squads of XXII, I can see someone like Robshaw getting the backrow bench slot cos he covers all 3 positions to a reasonable degree.

Sean O'Brien can do that too,there's oing to be some seriously talented players not even making the tour next year.I think this is the most talented group of players the Lions will have had since the game turned pro and I'll stick kmy neck out and predict a whitewash to the Lions (assuming no crazy injury crisis happens)

Agreed on SOB and also that there is a huge quantity of talent to come through. We'll see how Wales go against OZ and England go against SA. There may be a few more headaches for selectors to come!

glamorganalun wrote:The stats used, did you take the average/gave or the total e.g., Lydiate did not play in the first game. Croft did not make many tackles for a 6 and he also missed a number of tackles excluding dropping the ball in front of the try line?

Alun, My comments in the associated threads were largely based on totals, with one or two exceptions where I felt an average metric was more appropriate and worthy of mention

You're absolutely right that Croft did not make that many tackles for a blindside, but my top tackler award went to Dusautoir (or Rennie for a B&I only player), both on a total and average basis. After those two, for tackling alone the stats would suggest Robshaw or Ferris (on a total and average basis). I can imagine that Croft's fumble with the line at his mercy will indeed come back to haunt him

[quote="asoreleftshoulder"]

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

Chjw131 wrote:
If it's squads of XXII, I can see someone like Robshaw getting the backrow bench slot cos he covers all 3 positions to a reasonable degree.

Sean O'Brien can do that too,there's oing to be some seriously talented players not even making the tour next year.I think this is the most talented group of players the Lions will have had since the game turned pro and I'll stick kmy neck out and predict a whitewash to the Lions (assuming no crazy injury crisis happens)

Shoulder, very true, SOB would be an excellent call for that role. Much like I was with respect to Dan Lydiate, I was slightly surprised that SOB didn't feature in the top two in that many categories either on a total or average basis, not to say that they aren't both excellent players

Your or you're?

Pick one, it doesn't really matter.

Like i said earlier, that i guess you removed, what could be more positive than pointimg out a humungous erroneous faux pas?

Good work ASBO - thank you for sharing all this. Not a stat-head myself, but still intrigued.
The lack of anyone outstanding in the stats for England, (with the possible exception of Croft) perhaps shows how good a job Lancaster has done at developing a team, as they still achieved results without any individuals being the "best" in their position - statistically speaking.
Alternatively the other view is our players are just mediocre and got lucky.
Probably depends if you're English or not.
Thanks again anyway.

I presume in regards to fly halves you didn't include tackling stats. If you did surely Sexton should be top overall?

Priestland had the worst tackle count ratio - 26 made, 10 misses.

beshocked, I tried to include everything in the overall judgement, rather than just focusing on one element

As, can you confirm how you brought the different areas together for each player? Did you use some sort of mathematical formula to combine the numbers or weight one or two particular areas for certain positions?

I note for instance that Adam Jones got the nod at tighthead, yet in your post summarising front row players you said:

"slightly odd that my personal front row star of the 6Ns, Adam Jones, doesn't feature"

niwatts, yes, sorry, that deserves some explanation. Adam Jones doesn't feature in the top two of virtually any category at the individual level (neither do many tightheads tbh), but the Welsh scrum in the team stats was rock solid, for which I largely credit the Hair Bear - hence, my (perhaps weak) justification of his statistical selection! Perhaps I simply should not have grouped all props together - from the stats alone, it is clear that the roles are quite different

Cheers for the reasoning As

Welcome bud

As I look at the backrow again, statistically a better complement to Rennie at open side would be either Ryan Jones (W) or Stephen Ferris (Ire) - will note that in the OP later

Damn, i have missed all the excitement again
Good stuff AsBo

Here is mine

15. Kearney (Ire)
14. North (W)
13. J Davies (W)
12. Fofana (F)
11. Cuthbert (W)
10. Sexton (Ire) Best of an ordinary bunch to be honest.
9. Phillips (W)

1. Jenkins (W)
2. Ford (S)
3. A Jones (W)
4. I Evans (W)
5. Gray (S)
6. Croft (E)
7. Rennie (S)
8. Denton (S)

Looking at that i'm a little curious how Parisse got in to the side.

Just comparing him to Morgan alone he's ran more often for a lot less, made less clean breks and beaten less defenders and been turned over triple the amount of times. Don't even get started on the tackles missed, lineouts lost and penalties conceded for them both.

I guess it does show that stats aren't everything, but also it highlights that once the BBC have their favourites, you'll never hear the end of them.

Rant over.

Cheers for this series ASBO.

Last thing for the moment, from an English pov Morgan was my player of the tournament, looking at the stats I wish the press would give Farrell and the Wilkinson cliches a rest!

The quantitative information is interesting, however without the qualitative data they are pretty futile and often meaningless and misleading. Interesting all the same

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:beshocked, I tried to include everything in the overall judgement, rather than just focusing on one element

Fair enough.

Stats are open to interpretation after all.

Stats are interesting...

Ok Croft is rated possibly as the top 6. And was in the Lions team last trip. However i would suspect a large majority would have Lydiate starting at 6 on current form.

So what do stats actually tell us?

yappysnap wrote:Looking at that i'm a little curious how Parisse got in to the side.

Just comparing him to Morgan alone he's ran more often for a lot less, made less clean breks and beaten less defenders and been turned over triple the amount of times. Don't even get started on the tackles missed, lineouts lost and penalties conceded for them both.

I guess it does show that stats aren't everything, but also it highlights that once the BBC have their favourites, you'll never hear the end of them.

Rant over.

Cheers for this series ASBO.

Last thing for the moment, from an English pov Morgan was my player of the tournament, looking at the stats I wish the press would give Farrell and the Wilkinson cliches a rest!

Sadly that is very true, yappy, and the general public tend to lap it up without questioning it in the slightest!

Morgan had a good tournament - he really came on leaps and bounds as it progressed, and I'd imagine there is still more to come from him too

GeordieFalcon wrote:Stats are interesting...

Ok Croft is rated possibly as the top 6. And was in the Lions team last trip. However i would suspect a large majority would have Lydiate starting at 6 on current form.

So what do stats actually tell us?

Stats merely offer a little guidance, and are necessarily limited - all sorts of other factors need to be included in reality when thinking about who is the best or Lions team selection, etc., imo. I guess the key for me, Geordie, is that we're all entitled to our opinions - it just helps if we have the proof statements to back those up!

Would you care to do a team of shame ASBO with the tournaments worst performers in it?

yappysnap wrote:Would you care to do a team of shame ASBO with the tournaments worst performers in it?

Scotland

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

yappysnap wrote:Would you care to do a team of shame ASBO with the tournaments worst performers in it?

Scotland

I wanted to write the same thing but thought better of it.

eirebilly wrote:

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

yappysnap wrote:Would you care to do a team of shame ASBO with the tournaments worst performers in it?

Scotland

I wanted to write the same thing but thought better of it.

billy, wouldn't have minded if you did, would have known it was just leg-pulling ... I think?!